Montana crops down to record levels

Montana farmers and ranchers are facing record drought — and record low production for a variety of crops. From oats to barley, hay to wheat, all Montana agriculture commodities are facing record lows, some of which have not been seen since 1935.

A wheat farmer harvests a crop near Three Forks, Montana. (David Reese/Montana Living)

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, based on August conditions, oat production in Montana is forecast at a record low 700,000 bushels. This forecast is down 36 percent from the July 1 forecast and down 59 percent from the 2020 crop, according to , according to the Agricultural Yield Survey conducted by the National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Montana acreage harvested is expected to total 20,000 acres, down 18,000 acres from the 38,000 acres harvested last year. Oat yield is forecast at 35 bushels per acre, down 20 bushels per acre from the July 1 forecast and down 10.0 bushels per acre from last year.

This could be the lowest yield since 31.0 bushels per acre in 1988. As of August 1, Montana’s oat crop condition was rated 38 percent very poor, 40 percent poor, 20 percent fair, 1 percent good, and 1 percent excellent. Oat harvest was at 15 percent complete, compared with 1 percent last year.

Barley production is forecast at 21.24 million bushels, down 21 percent from the July 1 forecast and down 54 percent from last year’s crop. This would be the lowest barley production since 14.85 million bushels were produced in 1953.

Area for harvest in 2021, at 685,000 acres, is down 40,000 acres from the 725,000 acres harvested last year. Barley yield is forecast at 31.0 bushels per acre, down 8.0 bushels per acre from the July 1 forecast and 32.0 bushels per acre below last year.

If realized, this would be the lowest yield since 24.0 bushels per acre in 1988. As of August 1, the barley crop condition was rated 33 percent very poor, 46 percent poor, 13 percent fair, 7 percent good, and 1 percent excellent. Barley harvest was 13 percent complete, compared with 1 percent last year and the 5-year average of 7 percent.

Winter wheat production is forecast at 52.70 million bushels, down 26 percent from the July 1 forecast and down 31 percent from the 75.99 million bushels produced last year. If realized, the USDA said, this would be the lowest winter wheat production since 21.84 million bushels in 2002. Estimated acreage for harvest, at 1.70 million acres, is 210,000 acres more than the 1.49 million acres harvested in 2020.

As of Aug. 1, the average yield is forecast at 31.0 bushels per acre, down 11.0 bushels per acre from the July 1 forecast and 20.0 bushels per acre below last year’s record high final yield of 51.0 bushels per acre. If realized, this would be the lowest winter wheat yield since 28.0 bushels per acre in 2002. As of Aug. 1, the winter wheat crop condition was rated 27 percent very poor, 29 percent poor, 42 percent fair, and 2 percent good. Winter wheat harvest was 52 percent complete, compared with 19 percent last year and the 5-year average of 39 percent.

A canola field near Bigfork, Montana (David Reese/Montana Living)

Durum wheat production is forecast at 11.61 million bushels, down 18 percent from the July 1 forecast and down 57 percent from the 26.72 million bushels produced last year. If realized, this would be the lowest Durum wheat production since 10.78 million bushels in 2011.

Estimated acreage for harvest, at 645,000 acres, is 40,000 acres less than the 685,000 acres harvested in 2020. As of August 1, the average yield is forecast at 18.0 bushels per acre, 4.0 bushels per acre below the July 1 forecast and 21.0 bushels per acre below last year’s final yield. If realized, this would be the lowest Durum wheat yield since 16.0 bushels per acre in 2017.

As of Aug. 1, the Durum wheat crop condition was rated 55 percent very poor, 39 percent poor, 4 percent fair, and 2 percent good. Durum wheat harvest was 5 percent complete.

Spring wheat production in Montana is forecast at 51 million bushels, down 20 percent from the July 1 forecast and down 59 percent from the 124.64 million bushels produced last year. If realized, this would be the lowest spring wheat production since 48.09 million bushels in 2017. Estimated acreage for harvest, at 2.55 million acres, is down 730,000 acres from the 3.28 million acres harvested in 2020.

As of Aug. 1, the average yield is forecast at 20.0 bushels per acre, 5.0 bushels per acre below the July 1 forecast and 18.0 bushels per acre below last year’s final yield. If realized, this would be the lowest spring wheat yield since 12.0 bushels per acre in 1988. As of August 1, the spring wheat crop condition was rated 42 percent very poor, 43 percent poor, 12 percent fair, and 3 percent good. Spring wheat harvest was 19 percent complete, compared with 1 percent last year and the 5-year average of 4 percent.

A field of wheat in Valier, Montana. (David Reese/Montana Living

Montana farmers and ranchers expect to harvest 1.85 million acres of alfalfa hay this year, down 50,000 acres from 2020. They also expect to harvest 970,000 acres of other hay in 2021, up 10,000 acres from last year. Alfalfa production is forecast at 2.59 million tons, down 38 percent from 4.18 million tons produced in 2020. If realized, this would be the lowest alfalfa hay production since 2.09 million tons in 1988. Other hay production is forecast at 1.07 million tons, down 38 percent from 1.73 million tons produced a year ago. If realized, this would be the lowest alfalfa hay yield since 1.20 tons per acre in 1935 and the lowest other hay yield since 1.00 ton per acre in 1988.

Sugarbeet production is forecast at 1.27 million tons, up 7 percent from 1.19 million tons produced in 2020. Growers expect to harvest 41,000 acres this year compared with 38,000 acres a year ago. Yields are expected to average 30.9 tons per acre, down from 31.3 tons per acre a year ago. As of August 1, the sugarbeet crop was rated 12 percent very poor, 13 percent poor, 41 percent fair, and 34 percent good.

UNITED STATES HIGHLIGHTS

In the United States, oat production is forecast at 41.4 million bushels, down 37 percent from 2020. If realized, this would be the lowest production on record. Growers expect to harvest 722,000 acres for grain, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 28 percent from 2020. Based on conditions as of August 1, the United States yield is forecast at 57.4 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bushel per acre from the previous forecast but 7.7 bushels below the 2020 average yield.

Barley production is forecast at 106 million bushels, down 8 percent from the previous forecast and down 36 percent from 2020. If realized, this would be the lowest production since 1900. Based on conditions as of August 1, the average yield for the United States is forecast at 51.6 bushels per acre, down 4.3 bushels from the previous forecast and down 25.9 bushels from last year. Barley producers are expecting the lowest yield since 1989. Area harvested for grain or seed, at 2.04 million acres, is unchanged from the previous forecast, but down 4 percent from 2020.

All wheat production for grain is forecast at 1.70 billion bushels, down 3 percent from the previous forecast and down 7 percent from 2020. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 44.5 bushels per harvested acre, down 1.3 bushel from the previous forecast and down 5.2 bushels from 2020. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 38.1 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast, but up 4 percent from 2020.

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.32 billion bushels, down 3 percent from the July 1 forecast but up 13 percent from 2020. As of August 1, the United States yield is forecast at 51.8 bushels per acre, down 1.8 bushels from last month but up 0.9 bushel from last year’s average yield of 50.9 bushels per acre. Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 25.4 million acres, unchanged from last month, but up 11 percent from last year. Hard Red Winter production, at 777 million bushels, is down 3 percent from last month. Soft Red Winter, at 366 million bushels, is up 1 percent from the July forecast. White Winter, at 176 million bushels, is down 11 percent from last month. Of the White Winter production, 16.1 million bushels are Hard White and 160 million bushels are Soft White.

Durum wheat production is forecast at 34.7 million bushels, down 7 percent from the July 1 forecast and down 50 percent from 2020. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 24.0 bushels per harvested acre, down 1.8 bushels from last month and down 17.4 bushels from 2020. Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 1.44 million acres, unchanged from last month, but down 13 percent from 2020.

Other spring wheat production for grain is forecast at 343 million bushels, down less than 1 percent from the July 1 forecast and down 41 percent from last year. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 30.6 bushels per harvested acre, down 0.1 bushel from last month and down 18.0 bushels from 2020. If realized, this would be the lowest yield since 2002 for the United States. Area harvested for grain or seed is expected to total 11.2 million acres, unchanged from last month, but 7 percent below 2020. Of the total production, 305 million bushels are Hard Red Spring wheat, down 42 percent from 2020.

Production of alfalfa and alfalfa mixture dry hay for 2021 is forecast at 47.8 million tons, down 10 percent from 2020. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 2.97 tons per acre, down 0.3 ton from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 16.1 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report but down 1 percent from 2020. Production of other hay is forecast at 70.9 million tons, down 4 percent from 2020. Based on August 1 conditions, the United States yield is expected to average 2.00 tons per acre, down 0.05 ton from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 35.4 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report but down 2 percent from 2020.

Production of sugarbeets for the 2021 crop year is forecast at 33.7 million tons, up slightly from last year. Sugarbeet producers expect to harvest 1.13 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report but down 1 percent from 2020. Yield is forecast at 29.7 tons per acre, an increase of 0.3 ton from last year.